2026 MWC Shanghai Observations: 6G Shifts from 'What to Do' to 'How to Do'; Satellite Enters Scale Networking Cost Reduction Phase
Recently, the 2026 MWC Shanghai opened as scheduled. Unlike the enthusiastic atmosphere of last year when 5G-A commercial orders were intensively landing, this year's exhibition hall exudes a prudent sense of pragmatism. The "6G Industry Ecosystem Zone" and the "Future Constellation" satellite section, which set up their own halls for the first time, drew crowds, but the industry was more keen on discussing "when technology will turn into real money."
In the 6G direction, the three major paths of integrated sensing and communication, AI-native, and space-air-ground integration are no longer controversial; chip makers have even started pre-research stocking. In the satellite internet field, the "land grab" for orbital frequencies has basically ended, with scale networking and cost reduction becoming the new themes.
However, consensus stops at the technical level. Terminal manufacturers and investment institutions are generally sitting on the sidelines: the former waiting for killer applications, the latter unable to calculate the return cycle. Even international satellite players that have achieved profitability find it tough to nurture the civilian market in its early stages.
While the financial accounts for 5G investment are not yet fully settled, 6G and satellite internet are collectively entering a transition period where "the vision is clear, but delivery is difficult." Technical paths are narrowing, yet commercial avenues are broadening. Under real investment return constraints, the industry needs a more pragmatic answer than "grand narratives."
6G Technical Paths Converging, Business Loop Still Under Exploration
Entering the 6G Industry Ecosystem Zone in Hall N3 of MWC Shanghai, five exhibition areas break down the core technical vision of 6G into clear and tangible parts: Beijing 6G Lab General Area, Communication Enhancement, Integration of Sensing and Communication, Integration of Communication, Computing, and Intelligence, and Space-Terrestrial Integration. On-site staff introduced that this is the first time MWC Shanghai has set up a dedicated hall for 6G, sending a clear industry signal: 6G has moved from conceptual discussion to the critical stage of system verification.
"If last year everyone was still debating what 6G should do, this year the debate is about how to do it and what trade-offs to make," a technician from the Beijing 6G Lab General Area told reporters. Currently, the three enhancement paths of integrated sensing and communication, AI-native, and space-air-ground integration have basically formed industry consensus. Key technologies such as terahertz communication and intelligent reflecting surfaces have also entered the prototype verification stage.
The pace of deployment in the upstream industry chain is clearly accelerating. Qualcomm demonstrated an end-to-end 6G prototype system; GalaxySpace publicly displayed its second-generation phased array antenna for direct mobile phone connection for the first time in the 6G industry zone; vivo showcased its 6G pre-research prototype and technology roadmap. According to reports, unlike Xiaomi focusing on underlying transmission algorithms and OPPO focusing on communication paradigm innovation, vivo's display direction leans more towards end-to-end systems and application landing. Its complete 6G test system includes MR terminals, 6G terminal prototypes (UE), 6G base stations (RAN), and core network, covering the entire chain.
A site representative from a domestic chip manufacturer said that the internal 6G pre-research team size has doubled compared to last year. The logic is clear: "Waiting until the standard is frozen would be too late; we must build technology reserves ahead of time."
Compared to the enthusiasm of the upstream, terminal manufacturers are relatively cautious. The 6G terminal plans of several mobile phone brands were described as "under close observation," and few consumer-grade product demonstrations for 6G were seen on the booths. The 6G pre-research director of a top-five global smartphone maker said in an informal exchange that a commercial roadmap for 6G phones is still difficult to provide, not due to lack of technical capability, but because the terminal side is still studying the conversion path from user needs to application scenarios. He believes that the experience dividend of 5G has not been fully released, and the scenarios envisioned for 6G, such as immersive holography and multi-dimensional senses, are still a distance away from the mass consumer market.
The investment community is equally cautious. An early-stage investor said that from an investment perspective, the capital return of 5G is still in the digestion cycle; the subsequent R&D and network deployment investment required for 6G is huge, and exit cycles and return expectations currently lack sufficient data support. He admitted that at this stage, he is more maintaining observation and tracking; the time to act still requires clearer commercial signals.
"Future Constellation": Pattern Preliminarily Set, Profit Path Yet to Be Verified
Unlike the atmosphere of the 6G zone, which focuses on key technology verification, the "Future Constellation" satellite industry zone presents a different industry rhythm: the orbital pattern has taken shape, and participants have entered a stage of intensive cultivation in resources and cost.
Domestic low-orbit broadband and narrowband constellation operators such as GeoTech, Chengdu Tianqi, and Shanghai Yuanxin, as well as international players like Iridium, set up booths. GeoTech demonstrated real terminal equipment for low-orbit satellite internet targeting scenarios such as ocean-going vessels and desert mining areas; Chengdu Tianqi promoted its Tianqi constellation's IoT deployment cases; an engineer from Shanghai Yuanxin conducted a live video call, playing a test video call from the "Qianfan Constellation."
"The battle over orbital and frequency resources for satellite internet has largely concluded; the current focus is on scale deployment and cost control," said a representative from Chengdu Tianqi. He revealed that the batch production cost of narrowband communication payloads continues to decline, but the user scale for satellite internet services has not yet reached the break-even point. At least for the next few years, government and industry orders will remain the basic revenue base.
During the formation of the profit model, terminal costs are worth attention. In exchanges at the antenna and module manufacturer booths, respondents generally said costs are falling rapidly and have the capability to be integrated into mainstream phone designs, but most did not disclose specific numbers.
A business manager at the Iridium booth stated that Iridium has achieved positive cash flow through narrowband voice and low-speed data services, but traditional markets are becoming saturated, and the next growth needs to expand into IoT and emergency communications. As for domestic low-orbit broadband constellations, they are still in a catch-up phase prioritizing scale; reaching break-even will require time and user accumulation.
